Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 julio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jul 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 203 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 JUL 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. THE MOST ENERGETIC EVENT
WAS A CLASS M5 FLARE IN REGION 9090 (N11E06) AT 21/1430Z. REGION
9087 (S12W26) AND REGION 9090 HAVE PRODUCED MOST OF THE ACTIVITY,
REGIONS 9087 AND 9090 ARE THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS TODAY; BOTH HAVE
DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH WITH CLASS M FLARES LIKELY AND CLASS X FLARES
POSSIBLE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE SOLAR
ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED ON 19 JULY AND 20 JULY HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED
AT THIS TIME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF EARLIER SOLAR ACTIVITY. ACE DATA INDICATE
SOME STRUCTURES MAY STILL BE PROPAGATING IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE
LEADING TO EXPECTATIONS FOR UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 JUL a 24 JUL
| Clase M | 85% | 80% | 75% |
| Clase X | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Protón | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 JUL 251 Previsto 22 JUL-24 JUL 245/240/235 Media de 90 Días 21 JUL 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUL 028/043 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUL 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUL-24 JUL 030/030-025/015-020/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 JUL a 24 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 22% | 12% | 12% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 27% | 22% | 12% |
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