Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 julio 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 202 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 JUL 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A HIGH LEVEL. REGION 9087 (S11W11) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M5/1B AT 20/2025Z WITH A 10 CM BURST OF 490 SFU. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M3/1F AT 20/1006Z WITH MEDIUM INTENSITY CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THE GROWTH RATE IN THIS REGION SLOWED. AREAS OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINED BUT THE STEEP GRADIENTS OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS APPEAR TO HAVE LESSENED. REGION 9097 (N05E55) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION SHOWED A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN ITS LEADER SPOT. REGION 9090 (N11E21) EXHIBITED SOME LEADER GROWTH AND SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS ORIGINATED FROM THAT AREA. A TYPE II BURST OCCURRED AT 20/1652Z WITH NO APPROPRIATE OPTICAL COUNTERPART.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HIGH FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 9087 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THIS REGION IS ALSO CAPABLE OF GENERATING ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES. OTHER DISK REGIONS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FULL DISK M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. FOLLOWING THE SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 19/1526Z, BZ WAS NORTHWARD UNTIL IT TURNED SOUTHWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 20/0000Z AND STORM CONDITIONS ENSUED. BZ BECAME NORTHWARD AGAIN AROUND 20/1300Z AND THE FIELD CALMED TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN ON 14 JULY ENDED AT 19/2330Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO STORM LEVELS EARLY ON 21 JULY IN RESPONSE TO A SUSPECTED (NO CORONAGRAPH DATA) MASS EJECTION WITH THE M6 FLARE ON 19 JULY. MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF SEVERE STORMING ARE POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO 22 JULY WITH UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FORECAST. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 23 JULY. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 JUL a 23 JUL
Clase M85%80%75%
Clase X35%30%20%
Protón35%30%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 JUL 253
  Previsto   21 JUL-23 JUL  245/235/230
  Media de 90 Días        20 JUL 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JUL  010/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JUL  038/052
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JUL-23 JUL  050/050-025/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 JUL a 23 JUL
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%20%
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%20%
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%10%05%

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