Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 junio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jun 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 JUN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS FROM REGION 9040 (N18E07) WHICH PRODUCED AN M2/1F AT
15/2343Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9048
(N07W13) AND REGION 9049 (S40E65).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL
REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033 (N24W67), 9042 (N20E29) AND 9046
(N18E57).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DAY TWO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE DUE TO THE M1/2N FLARE
AND CME OBSERVED AT 15/1957Z FROM REGION 9041 (N20W65 AT FLARE
TIME). QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON DAY
THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 JUN a 19 JUN
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 JUN 198 Previsto 17 JUN-19 JUN 195/190/185 Media de 90 Días 16 JUN 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN 021/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN 015/015-020/025-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 JUN a 19 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
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