Viendo archivo del martes, 13 junio 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jun 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 165 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 JUN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A LONG DURATION C4/SF AT 13/1350Z FROM
REGION 9041 (N18W35). GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED BUT SOME RECENT
FLARE ACTIVITY HERE WAS SHARED WITH NEARBY REGION 9033 (N24W22).
FREQUENT SUBFLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM REGION 9042 (N19E69). THIS
REGION SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP. REGION 9026
(N23W74) CONTINUED A SLOW DECAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9026, 9033/9041, AND 9042 APPEAR CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR MAJOR FLARES
FROM THESE REGIONS IS DECREASING SLOWLY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK
PASSED THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 12/2140Z AND CREATED A SUDDEN IMPULSE
OF 28 NT AT THE EARTH AT 12/2210Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED
FROM 450 KM/S TO OVER 600 KM/S. HOWEVER, SINCE THAT TIME, VELOCITY
SLOWLY DECREASED AND AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WAS BACK BELOW 450
KM/S. THIS SHOCK IS BELIEVED RELATED TO THE FULL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION ON 10 JUN. THE LEVEL OF DISTURBANCE IN THE GEOMAGNETIC
FIELD FOLLOWING THE SHOCK WAS BELOW EXPECTATION.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. VERY
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE. NO RECENT MASS EJECTIONS
APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 JUN a 16 JUN
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 JUN 199 Previsto 14 JUN-16 JUN 200/195/192 Media de 90 Días 13 JUN 188
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUN 012/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUN 016/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUN-16 JUN 010/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 JUN a 16 JUN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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