Viendo archivo de lunes, 5 junio 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 157 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 JUN 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE SIGNIFICANT FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THREE DIFFERENT REGIONS. THE FIRST AND LARGEST WAS AN M3 X-RAY EVENT WITH ACCOMPANYING TENFLARE FROM REGION 9026 (N20E23). THIS REGION IS BY FAR THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH OVER 800 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA IN AN "E" TYPE BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 9024 (S11W45) PRODUCED A C4/1F FLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AT 05/0325Z. THERE IS NO NOTEWORTHY MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OBVIOUS IN THIS REGION WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN DECAY. AN M1/1F FLARE ERUPTED FROM REGION 9031 (S32W52) AT 05/1359Z. ONLY MINOR GROWTH NOTED IN THIS REGION. NEW REGIONS 9032 (S18E41) AND 9033 (N24E77) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN X-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THESE DISTURBED CONDITIONS FOLLOWED THE SUDDEN IMPULSE OBSERVED AT 04/1500Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY ONE. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY TWO. UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE LIKELY ON DAY THREE DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EFFECTS FROM THIS MORNING'S C4/CME AT 05/0325Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 JUN a 08 JUN
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 JUN 171
  Previsto   06 JUN-08 JUN  175/185/195
  Media de 90 Días        05 JUN 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN  015/015-010/010-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 JUN a 08 JUN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%40%
Tormenta Menor20%15%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%20%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%40%40%
Tormenta Menor30%25%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%15%25%

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