Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 145 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8996 (S22W87)
PRODUCED AN M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 24/0546Z. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1
FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/1152Z. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THIS FLARE WAS NEW
REGION 9017 (S14E76) WHICH HAS EXHIBITED FREQUENT SURGING FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. REGIONS 9002 (N19W51) AND 9004 (N12W61) CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. NEW REGIONS 9015 (N13W08) AND 9016 (N26E46)
WERE ALSO NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ANY ONE OF A NUMBER OF REGIONS ON OR NEAR
THE WEST LIMB ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
NEW REGION 9017 MAY ALSO PRODUCE AN M FLARE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE
TRANSIENT OBSERVED TO PASS ACE AT 23/1625Z HERALDED THE BEGINNING OF
A COMPACT AND COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. A NUMBER OF STRONG
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD VARIATIONS IN BZ OCCURRED THAT REACHED
EXTREMES OF -36 NT TO +30 NT. CONDITIONS IMPROVED BY 24/12Z BUT
SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINS ELEVATED RESULTING IN ACTIVE TO MINOR
STORM CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS
ACTIVITY IS PRESUMED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE C7/1N FLARE THAT
OCCURRED AT 20/0535Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE AS
THE PRESENT STORM SUBSIDES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 MAY a 27 MAY
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 MAY 189 Previsto 25 MAY-27 MAY 180/175/165 Media de 90 Días 24 MAY 196
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAY 019/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAY 048/070 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAY-27 MAY 018/030-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 MAY a 27 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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