Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 mayo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 136 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVEN M-CLASS EVENTS WERE REPORTED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS AN M4/SF AT 15/0902UT FROM REGION 9002 (N18E70). THIS EVENT ALSO INCLUDED A 640 SFU TENFLARE AND A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). REGION 8993 (S21W72) PRODUCED THREE M1 EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8998 (S14E41) ALSO PRODUCED AN M1 EVENT. THERE WERE TWO UNCORRELATED M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST REGION WAS 8996 (S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1280 MILLIONTHS AND 45 SPOTS. IT HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN GROWTH AND SPOT COUNT SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 9003 (S18W40) AND 9004 (N10E61).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS DUE TO CONTINUED MULTIPLE M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD INCREASE ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 15 MAY, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 MAY a 18 MAY
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 MAY 244
  Previsto   16 MAY-18 MAY  245/250/250
  Media de 90 Días        15 MAY 189
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY  010/012-015/015-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 MAY a 18 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%50%
Tormenta Menor10%10%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%30%70%
Tormenta Menor15%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%

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