Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 mayo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES, ALL OF THEM OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. A 32 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM ROUGHLY S50E50 BETWEEN 11/22 AND 11/23UT. THE ERUPTION WAS VISIBLE IN EIT IMAGERY AND LASCO REVEALED A DRAMATIC CME OFF THE SOUTH POLE. AT THIS TIME THE CME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH DIRECTED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A NUMBER OF REGIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACE DATA INDICATED THE PASSAGE OF TWO SOLAR TRANSIENTS, ASSUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE MULTIPLE FILAMENT ERUPTIONS OF 8 MAY. WHILE THE TRANSIENTS PRODUCED SUSTAINED PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ, THE WIND SPEED REMAINED VERY LOW INHIBITING A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC RESPONSE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD. ON THE FIRST DAY, WE EXPECT TO SEE INCREASES IN THE SOLAR WIND SPEED DUE TO A SMALL CORONAL HOLE THAT IS NOW FAVORABLY POSITIONED. A SHOCK ASSOCIATED WITH THE 10 MAY LONG DURATION FLARE AND FILAMENT ERUPTION IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE 13 OR EARLY 14 MAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 MAY a 15 MAY
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 MAY 190
  Previsto   13 MAY-15 MAY  195/200/200
  Media de 90 Días        12 MAY 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAY  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAY-15 MAY  020/020-015/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 MAY a 15 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%20%
Tormenta Menor20%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%25%
Tormenta Menor25%20%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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