Viendo archivo de martes, 9 mayo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8989 (N17E13) ENTERED A GROWTH PHASE DURING THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS THAT MAY INCLUDE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION PRODUCED NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SN FLARE AT 09/1740Z. SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED FROM OTHER SMALL REGIONS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ANOTHER LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA. THIS SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM YET ANOTHER FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. A MODERATE SIZE H TYPE SPOT ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8992 (N09E73).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8989 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH HERE COULD RESULT IN THE DISSOLUTION OF SEVERAL NEARBY FILAMENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL MIDDAY ON 11 MAY WHEN A FILAMENT ERUPTION RELATED STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FROM THAT TIME THROUGH 13 MAY. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DISTURBANCE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 MAY a 12 MAY
Clase M45%45%45%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 MAY 150
  Previsto   10 MAY-12 MAY  158/162/165
  Media de 90 Días        09 MAY 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY  007/008-018/015-030/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 MAY a 12 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%30%30%
Tormenta Menor05%25%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%30%25%
Tormenta Menor05%30%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%15%

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