Viendo archivo del martes, 9 mayo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 MAY 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8989 (N17E13) ENTERED A
GROWTH PHASE DURING THE PERIOD AND DEVELOPED MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS
THAT MAY INCLUDE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C9/SN FLARE AT 09/1740Z.
SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED FROM OTHER SMALL
REGIONS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, ANOTHER LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
BECAME VISIBLE IN THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA. THIS SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE EVENT APPEARS TO HAVE ORIGINATED FROM YET ANOTHER
FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. A
MODERATE SIZE H TYPE SPOT ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND WAS NUMBERED AS
REGION 8992 (N09E73).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8989 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL
M-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED GROWTH HERE COULD RESULT IN THE
DISSOLUTION OF SEVERAL NEARBY FILAMENTS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL MIDDAY ON 11 MAY WHEN A FILAMENT
ERUPTION RELATED STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FROM THAT TIME THROUGH 13 MAY.
ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DISTURBANCE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 MAY a 12 MAY
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 MAY 150 Previsto 10 MAY-12 MAY 158/162/165 Media de 90 Días 09 MAY 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAY 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAY 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAY-12 MAY 007/008-018/015-030/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 MAY a 12 MAY
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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