Viendo archivo del martes, 18 abril 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 109 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 APR 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8963 (N16E09) RAPIDLY
EMERGED AS THE PRIMARY FLARE PRODUCING REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK
AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THREE LARGEST EVENTS OF THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST AND LARGEST EVENT WAS A C7/SF AT 18/0805UT, FOLLOWED BY A C4
FLARE WITH A TYPE II SWEEP AT 18/1153UT, AND FINALLY A C4/SF AT
18/1415UT. ALL EVENTS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS.
THIS REGION, THOUGH QUITE ACTIVE, IS A RELATIVELY SMALL DAO GROUP
WITH 80 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGION 8955 (S22W19) HAS
STABILIZED, PRODUCING ONLY OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS FLARES. NEW
REGION 8966 (S13E65) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE
QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8955 AND 8963 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED
PERIODS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 APR a 21 APR
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 APR 160 Previsto 19 APR-21 APR 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 18 APR 183
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 APR 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 APR 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 APR-21 APR 008/012-010/015-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 APR a 21 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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