Viewing archive of jueves, 13 abril 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 APR 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8948 (S15W49) SHOWED GRADUAL SIMPLIFICATION OF ITS MAGNETIC STRUCTURE, BUT MAINTAINED A BETA-GAMMA CLASSIFICATION. IT PRODUCED A C-CLASS SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHT GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION 8959 (S17E14). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8960 (N19W15), 8961 (S25E07), 8962 (N21E76), AND 8963 (N15E74).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8948. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ON 15 APRIL DUE TO A SMALL, FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 APR a 16 APR
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 APR 164
  Previsto   14 APR-16 APR  165/165/160
  Media de 90 Días        13 APR 185
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 APR  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 APR  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 APR-16 APR  008/010-012/012-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 APR a 16 APR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%30%15%
Tormenta Menor05%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%35%20%
Tormenta Menor10%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%

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