Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 abril 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 APR 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8948
(S15W49) SHOWED GRADUAL SIMPLIFICATION OF ITS MAGNETIC STRUCTURE,
BUT MAINTAINED A BETA-GAMMA CLASSIFICATION. IT PRODUCED A C-CLASS
SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SLIGHT GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGION
8959 (S17E14). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY
NUMBERED REGIONS 8960 (N19W15), 8961 (S25E07), 8962 (N21E76), AND
8963 (N15E74).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 8948.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, BRIEF ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ON 15 APRIL DUE
TO A SMALL, FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 APR a 16 APR
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 APR 164 Previsto 14 APR-16 APR 165/165/160 Media de 90 Días 13 APR 185
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 APR 007/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 APR 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 APR-16 APR 008/010-012/012-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 APR a 16 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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