Viewing archive of miércoles, 12 abril 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 103 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 APR 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8948 (S16W37) APPEARED TO STABILIZE AS A MODERATE-SIZED, MIXED-POLARITY REGION FOLLOWING TWO DAYS OF GRADUAL DECAY. IT PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD: AN M1/1N AT 11/2337Z AND AN M1/SF AT 12/0335Z. REGION 8948 ALSO PRODUCED A C2/SN FLARE AT 12/0630Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. NEW REGION 8959 (S19E29) EMERGED JUST SOUTH OF REGION 8953 (S16E31).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A FAIR TO GOOD CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8948. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRNOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS FROM THE FAINT HALO-CME OBSERVED EARLY ON 10 APRIL. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 APR a 15 APR
Clase M50%45%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 APR 173
  Previsto   13 APR-15 APR  175/175/170
  Media de 90 Días        12 APR 185
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 APR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 APR  008/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 APR-15 APR  012/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 APR a 15 APR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%20%25%
Tormenta Menor15%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%15%

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