Viendo archivo del martes, 11 abril 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 102 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 APR 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15W12) PRODUCED
TODAY'S ONLY M-CLASS EVENT, AN M1/1N AT 1810Z. THE REGION PRODUCED
ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE REGION ON THE
DISK. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECLINE AND SIMPLIFICATION IN THE REGION
AND THE DELTA CONFIGURATION OF THE LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO BE GONE.
NEW REGION 8958 (N17E66) ROTATED IN TO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE B-TYPE
REGION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR-TO-GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS
FLARES FROM REGION 8948. HOWEVER, THE RECENT DECLINING TREND IN THE
REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN INTENSITY AND
FREQUENCY OF FLARES FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A MORE
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF YESTERDAY'S CORONAGRAPH DATA SHOWED THAT IN
FACT A VERY FAINT HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION COULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE M3 FLARE OF 9 APRIL FROM 8948. WHILE FAR FROM A CERTAINTY,
THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR THE CME TO PASS BY EARTH AND ENHANCE
ACTIVITY LEVELS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 APR a 14 APR
| Clase M | 50% | 45% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 APR 182 Previsto 12 APR-14 APR 185/190/190 Media de 90 Días 11 APR 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 APR 014/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 APR 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 APR-14 APR 020/020-020/015-010/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 APR a 14 APR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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