Viewing archive of martes, 11 abril 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 102 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 APR 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15W12) PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY M-CLASS EVENT, AN M1/1N AT 1810Z. THE REGION PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE REGION ON THE DISK. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECLINE AND SIMPLIFICATION IN THE REGION AND THE DELTA CONFIGURATION OF THE LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO BE GONE. NEW REGION 8958 (N17E66) ROTATED IN TO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE B-TYPE REGION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR-TO-GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS FLARES FROM REGION 8948. HOWEVER, THE RECENT DECLINING TREND IN THE REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY OF FLARES FROM THIS REGION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF YESTERDAY'S CORONAGRAPH DATA SHOWED THAT IN FACT A VERY FAINT HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE M3 FLARE OF 9 APRIL FROM 8948. WHILE FAR FROM A CERTAINTY, THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR THE CME TO PASS BY EARTH AND ENHANCE ACTIVITY LEVELS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 APR a 14 APR
Clase M50%45%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 APR 182
  Previsto   12 APR-14 APR  185/190/190
  Media de 90 Días        11 APR 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 APR  014/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 APR  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 APR-14 APR  020/020-020/015-010/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 APR a 14 APR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%25%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%05%

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