Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 marzo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 091 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 MAR 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF M-CLASS EVENTS THAT OCCURRED. MULTIPLE REGIONS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY. REGION 8939 (N22E56) PRODUCED THE LARGEST EVENT - AN M4/SF AT 31/1019Z. THIS FLARE ALSO PRODUCED A WEAK TYPE IV AND MINOR CENTIMETER BURSTS. REGION 8939 ALSO PRODUCED M1/SF FLARES AT 31/0755Z, 31/1318Z, AND 31/1655Z. THIS REGION'S SMALL SIZE BELIES ITS M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. REGION 8936 (S14E56) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND EXHIBITED INCREASING MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. THIS REGION PRODUCED AN M2/2B AT 30/2324Z AND AN M1/SN AT 31/0652Z (WITH A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION). REGION 8925 (S18W32) PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 31/1901Z. THIS REGION WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE AND EXHIBITED SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SEVERAL FILAMENTS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN FADED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A MODERATE LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8936 WOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THAT REGION. REGION 8939 COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS BUT DUE TO ITS SMALL AREA IN WHITE LIGHT, IT IS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL QUIET DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING WAS ALSO OBSERVED. THE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS UNKNOWN. SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS WERE REASONABLY BENIGN EXCEPT FOR SOME PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECTOR BOUNDARY DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPERIENCED EARLY ON 01 APR AND AGAIN ON 03 APR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 APR a 03 APR
Clase M85%85%85%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón05%05%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 MAR 225
  Previsto   01 APR-03 APR  225/225/223
  Media de 90 Días        31 MAR 181
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAR  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 APR-03 APR  010/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 APR a 03 APR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%15%25%
Tormenta Menor15%05%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%15%30%
Tormenta Menor15%05%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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