Viendo archivo del lunes, 13 marzo 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Mar 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 073 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 MAR 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E06)
PRODUCED AN M3/1B AT 12/2338Z AND AN M1/1N AT 13/1048Z. BOTH FLARES
HAD ASSOCIATED MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THIS REGION WAS ALSO
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES AND MAINTAINS A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENTS.
REGION 8910 (N09E56) WAS MODERATELY ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 13/1439Z. BOTH REGIONS 8898 (S14W70) AND 8904
(N24W70) APPEAR TO BE DECAYING AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8906 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS
ACTIVITY AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS FLARES. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8910 AND FROM REGIONS 8898 AND 8904 AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED LEVELS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD,
BUT WAS QUIET SINCE 13/00Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 MAR a 16 MAR
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 MAR 188 Previsto 14 MAR-16 MAR 185/180/170 Media de 90 Días 13 MAR 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAR 015/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 MAR a 16 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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