Viendo archivo del jueves, 24 febrero 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 055 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 FEB 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/0111Z. THERE ARE SOME TENTATIVE INDICATIONS THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM NEW REGION 8889 NEAR N19E67. THIS REGION IS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS GROUP BUT FORESHORTENING MAY BE MASKING ITS TRUE SIZE. A TOTAL OF THREE OTHER REGIONS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE BECAME VISIBLE BUT, AT THIS TIME, NONE APPEARED LARGE OR COMPLEX. THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE REGIONS STILL BEHIND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM NEAR EAST LIMB REGIONS IS A POSSIBILITY. ONCE THESE LONGITUDES BECOME VISIBLE, A BETTER ASSESSMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS AND WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AFTER 24/0300Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY OVER 800 KM/S AND DENSITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS INDICATING THE EARTH IS IMMERSED IN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE SOURCE HOLE ON THE SUN IS SLIGHTLY MORE ELONGATED THAN LAST SOLAR ROTATION.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 FEB. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ARE LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO EBB ON 27 FEB WHEN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 25 FEB.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 FEB a 27 FEB
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 FEB 192
  Previsto   25 FEB-27 FEB  195/197/200
  Media de 90 Días        24 FEB 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB  024/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB  025/020-018/018-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 FEB a 27 FEB
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%50%30%
Tormenta Menor35%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%50%30%
Tormenta Menor40%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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