Viendo archivo de miércoles, 23 febrero 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 054 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 FEB 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 22/2147Z. THE FLARE WAS PROBABLY THE SUPERPOSITION OF THREE EVENTS, A LONG DURATION C9 AND IMPULSIVE M1 AND C7 FLARES, BUT WITHOUT OPTICAL CORRELATION IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO BE SURE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SAW NUMEROUS UNCORRELATED C-CLASS FLARES AMIDST A BACKGROUND X-RAY FLUX AVERAGING NEARLY C2. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, 8884 (S11W74), 8885 (N11W43), AND 8886 (S14E31).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW, WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE. SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IMAGERY FROM THE YOHKOH SOFT X-RAY TELESCOPE SUGGESTS AT LEAST TWO LARGE ACTIVE REGIONS WILL SOON BE ROTATING ONTO THE DISK. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE FIELD INCREASED TO ACTIVE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION (CIR) SEEN IN ACE DATA. THIS CIR BROUGHT INCREASED SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES AND MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH; BZ FLUCTUATED WILDLY BETWEEN -15 AND 10 NT. THE CIR HERALDS THE EXPECTED RETURN OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE STREAM. ON THE THIRD DAY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 FEB a 26 FEB
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 FEB 185
  Previsto   24 FEB-26 FEB  185/185/190
  Media de 90 Días        23 FEB 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 FEB  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 FEB  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 FEB-26 FEB  020/023-020/018-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 FEB a 26 FEB
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%50%35%
Tormenta Menor15%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo60%60%45%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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