Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 febrero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 051 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 FEB 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED WITH THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1N FROM REGION 8869
(S20W61). REGIONS 8875 (S22W13) AND 8869 BOTH DISPLAYED SOME GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 MAINTAINED A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 41 SUNSPOTS. NEW REGION 8880
(S08W69) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY A BETA GROUP WITH 3
SPOTS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM
REGION 8869.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REACH UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO A FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED
BY AN EVENT ON 17 FEBRUARY. THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 FEB a 23 FEB
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 FEB 153 Previsto 21 FEB-23 FEB 150/145/135 Media de 90 Días 20 FEB 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB 030/050-015/030-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 FEB a 23 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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