Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 febrero 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 049 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 FEB 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY FOUR LOW INTENSITY C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED TODAY. THE LARGEST WAS AN UNCORRELATED C2 AND REGION 8869 (S21W35) PRODUCED A C1/SF WITH A HIGH SPEED (1400 KM/S) RADIO SWEEP AT 18/0844UT. REGION 8872, WHICH PRODUCED AN M1/2N FLARE WITH A FULL-HALO CME YESTERDAY, BECAME SPOTLESS TODAY. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW WITH A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS FROM 18/1130 TO 18/1405UT. AFTER THAT TIME THEY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE SHOCK FROM A FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 FEB a 21 FEB
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 FEB 141
  Previsto   19 FEB-21 FEB  140/140/135
  Media de 90 Días        18 FEB 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB  008/005-030/025-030/050
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 FEB a 21 FEB
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%50%50%
Tormenta Menor05%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%19%19%
Tormenta Menor10%50%50%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%30%30%

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