Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 febrero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 045 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 FEB 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY FLARE, WITH
NO ASSOCIATED OPTICAL, OCCURRED AT 13/2334Z. ONE NEW REGION, 8874
(S08E54), WAS ASSIGNED, MAKING A TOTAL OF 11 SPOTTED REGIONS NOW
VISIBLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
TRANSIENT, WITH ENHANCED MAGNETIC FIELDS, PASSED ACE AROUND 0700Z.
THESE STRONG FIELDS, COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY FASTER THAN USUAL
SOLAR WIND (700 KM/S), SET OFF INTERVALS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING
AT ALL LATITUDES. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS SINCE DROPPED, NOW JUST
LESS THAN 600 KM/S.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EPISODES OF
ACTIVE OR MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. THIS CALMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 FEB a 17 FEB
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 FEB 159 Previsto 15 FEB-17 FEB 155/155/150 Media de 90 Días 14 FEB 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB 025/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB 015/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 FEB a 17 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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