Viendo archivo del viernes, 11 febrero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Feb 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 042 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 FEB 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8858 (N24W25) CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION HAS SHOWN FURTHER
DECAY IN SUNSPOT AREA AND COMPLEXITY. OTHER REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY
INACTIVE. NEW REGIONS 8871 (S14W09) AND 8872 (S28E79) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8858 REMAINS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL ABOUT 11/0300UT
WHEN A SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOLLOWED DURING THE 11/0300-0600UT PERIOD. THE SI
IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 08
FEBRUARY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ELEVATED ACTIVITY LEVELS
ARE POSSIBLE ON 12-13 FEBRUARY DUE TO CMES THAT OCCURRED ON 09 AND
10 FEBRUARY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 FEB a 14 FEB
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 FEB 170 Previsto 12 FEB-14 FEB 170/170/168 Media de 90 Días 11 FEB 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB 010/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB 012/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB 015/020-015/030-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 FEB a 14 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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