Viendo archivo del sábado, 22 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 022 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE, AN M1 FLARE WAS OBSERVED
AT 22/1802UT FROM REGION 8831 (S17W53). THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY A MINOR RADIO BURST AND WAS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE LARGE FILAMENT NEAR S43W32. THERE ARE NINE
SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, BUT ALL APPEAR STABLE OR DECAYING.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN BY THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT 22/0023UT, HOWEVER, THERE WAS NO NOTICEABLE IMPULSE ON
GROUND-BASED MAGNETOMETERS FOLLOWING THE SHOCK AT ACE. THE BZ
COMPONENT OF THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD HAS BEEN NEGATIVE (SOUTH) FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, REACHING A MINIMUM OF -18NT AROUND 22/1800UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, RETURNING TO QUIET
LEVELS AFTER 23 JAN.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 JAN a 25 JAN
| Clase M | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 JAN 151 Previsto 23 JAN-25 JAN 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 22 JAN 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN 000/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN 020/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 JAN a 25 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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