Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 014 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY 4 C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
NOTED. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8827 (S12W58) WHICH HAS SHOWN
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND ALSO PRODUCED THE
LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD, A C6/SF AT 14/1711UT. THE MOST COMPLEX
REGION REMAINS 8824 (S13E08) WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. REGION 8824 SHOWED STRONG
PLAGE FLUCTUATION DURING THE PERIOD BUT ONLY PRODUCED A SINGLE
OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8829 (N17E40) ALSO SHOWED PLAGE
FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE OF ACTIVITY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8824 AND 8829 ARE BOTH POTENTIAL SOURCES FOR
ISOLATED M AND POSSIBLY X-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 JAN a 17 JAN
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 JAN 201 Previsto 15 JAN-17 JAN 210/215/215 Media de 90 Días 14 JAN 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 JAN a 17 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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