Viendo archivo del martes, 11 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 011 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE
UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY EVENT AT 11/0424UT. REGION 8824 (S13E47) WAS
THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH OPTICAL SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C9/SF AT
11/0116UT. REGION 8824 DEVELOPED INTO A MORE COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA
MAGNETIC STRUCTURE DURING THE PERIOD. A TEN DEGREE LONG DISAPPEARING
SOLAR FILAMENT (S34E41) WAS NOTED AT 11/1440UT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD: 8826 (N18W21) AND 8827 (S11W20).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH TWO ACTIVE
PERIODS OCCURRING AT THE END OF THE REPORTING DAY. THIS INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY IS DUE TO HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM. THE ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FADE QUICKLY, GIVING WAY
TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 JAN a 14 JAN
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 JAN 178 Previsto 12 JAN-14 JAN 180/185/190 Media de 90 Días 11 JAN 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JAN 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JAN 018/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JAN-14 JAN 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 JAN a 14 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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