Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 diciembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Dec 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 354 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 DEC 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. SOLAR X-RAY BACKGROUND IS
RUNNING NEAR THE C LEVEL, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SMALL C CLASS
EVENTS. THERE ARE TWO MAJOR COMPLEXES CURRENTLY VISIBLE, REGION
8798 (S12 W20) AND REGION 8806 (N18E37). BOTH THESE REGIONS ARE
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, WITH DELTAS, HOWEVER, ONLY MINOR PLAGE
ENHANCEMENTS ARE BEING OBSERVED. SMALL REGION 8803 (S12W30) IS
EMBEDDED IN THE LEADING POLARITY PLAGE OF REGION 8798. REGION 8807
(N10 E43) IS LOCATED IN AN OLD PLAGE JUST SOUTH OF REGION 8806.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE, HOWEVER, MAJOR FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8798
(S12W20) AND 8806 (N18E37).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN BASICALLY QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR AN ENERGETIC PARTICLE EVENT FROM EITHER THE REGION 8798 OR
REGION 8806 COMPLEXES NOW VISIBLE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 DEC a 23 DEC
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 DEC 209 Previsto 21 DEC-23 DEC 205/200/195 Media de 90 Días 20 DEC 171
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 DEC 006/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 DEC 003/003 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 DEC-23 DEC 008/012-010/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 DEC a 23 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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