Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 diciembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Dec 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 350 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 DEC 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8799 HAS MERGED WITH
REGION 8798 (S14E34) AND IS NOW PART OF THAT ONE REGION. REGION 8798
IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 410
MILLIONTHS. IN WHITE LIGHT REGION 8798 HAS A COMPLEX APPEARANCE BUT
REMAINS MAGNETICALLY CLASSIFIED AS A BETA GROUP. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 16/0744Z. THREE NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8802 (S23E04), REGION 8803
(S14E24), AND REGION 8804 (S18E78).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8798 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 DEC a 19 DEC
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 DEC 194 Previsto 17 DEC-19 DEC 200/210/195 Media de 90 Días 16 DEC 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 DEC 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC 005/005-008/008-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 DEC a 19 DEC
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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