Viendo archivo de sábado, 27 noviembre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 331 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 NOV 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8771 (S14W78) PRODUCED AN X1/2B TENFLARE AT 27/1212Z. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED TWO OTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENTS - AN M2/1N AT 27/0301Z AND AN M1/1N AT 27/0549Z. THOUGH SOME DECAY WAS OBSERVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THIS REGION RETAINS CONSIDERABLE SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8778 (S14W19) CONTINUES IN A SLOW GROWTH PHASE AND PRODUCED A C5/1N FLARE AT 27/0452Z. A LARGE, 17 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED FROM S50 NEAR CENTER DISK BETWEEN 26/1700 - 1930Z. NEW REGION 8782 (N11E01) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8771 (S14W78) SHOULD CONTINUE PRODUCING M-CLASS ACTIVITY AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE. REGION 8778 (S14W19) WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND HAS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE, WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS LIKELY ON DAY TWO AND THREE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MINOR DISTURBANCE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN RESPONSE TO YESTERDAY'S PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OFF THE WEST LIMB. WE MAY ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM BY DAY THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 NOV a 30 NOV
Clase M55%40%40%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 NOV 169
  Previsto   28 NOV-30 NOV  160/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        27 NOV 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 NOV  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 NOV  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 NOV-30 NOV  007/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 NOV a 30 NOV
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%40%
Tormenta Menor10%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

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