Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 322 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF SOME OF THE LARGEST REGIONS OF THE SOLAR CYCLE, THE SUN HAS BEEN
SURPRISINGLY QUIET. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A M1/1F
FROM REGION 8771 (S14E46). REGION 8765 (S12W20), NOW APPROACHING
1300 MILLIONTHS, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE AND CONTAINS AT LEAST
ONE MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8772 (NO5E71) WAS
NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. MOST OF THE REGIONS NOW VISIBLE ON THE SUN HAVE
EITHER PRODUCED M FLARES OR HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY UNSETTLED THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE MAY BE SOME INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF SUSPECTED CME ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 NOV a 21 NOV
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 NOV 218 Previsto 19 NOV-21 NOV 210/200/200 Media de 90 Días 18 NOV 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV 011/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV 020/020-020/020-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 NOV a 21 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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