Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 321 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE
OBSERVED. THE LARGEST, AN M7/2B FLARE FROM REGION 8766 (N17E21),
OCCURRED AT 0957Z. TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS, A 390 SFU TENFLARE,
AND OTHER DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. THE SECOND
FLARE, AN M2/1N FROM REGION 8765 (S11E08), PEAKED AT 16/2124Z. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SAW NUMEROUS C-CLASS SUBFLARES SUPERIMPOSED
ON AN ELEVATED BACKGROUND FLUX LEVEL OF NEARLY C2. REGION 8765
ATTAINED A WHITE-LIGHT AREA OF 1190 MILLIONTHS AND REMAINS A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA GROUP. NEW REGION 8771 (S14W33) WAS NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. BOTH REGIONS 8765 AND 8766 HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE A MAJOR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8768.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
BY DAYS TWO AND THREE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO CME EFFECTS. PARTIAL HALO CMES WERE OBSERVED ON SOHO/LASCO
IMAGERY YESTERDAY AND TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY PRODUCED RADIO CME
SIGNATURES.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 NOV a 20 NOV
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 NOV 221 Previsto 18 NOV-20 NOV 215/200/195 Media de 90 Días 17 NOV 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 011/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 011/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 012/012-020/020-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 NOV a 20 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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