Viendo archivo de martes, 16 noviembre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 NOV 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SIX M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. THE FIRST AND LARGEST WAS AN M3/1B FLARE AT 16/0246Z FROM REGION 8766 (N18E31). A TYPE II AND IV SWEEP, A 360 SFU TENFLARE, AND A PARTIAL HALO CME ALSO ACCOMPANIED THIS FLARE. THIS REGION, THOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL, MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8765 (S12E06) PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 16/0710Z AND AN M1/IN AT 16/1411Z. THIS REGION IS A VERY LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION WITH TWO DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. WHITE LIGHT COVERAGE HAS NOW EXCEEDED 1000 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. AN M3/SN FLARE WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8760 (N15W81). A PARTIAL HALO CME OCCURRED WITH THIS FLARE. NEW REGION 8770 (S14W23) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8765 HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A MAJOR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE SOON. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN REGION 8766. REGIONS 8759 (N12W45) AND 8760 MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF NEGATIVE BZ HAS PERSISTED SINCE AROUND 16/0900Z RESULTING IN THE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE THROUGH DAY 2. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FREQUENT FLARE ACTIVITY AND CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 NOV a 19 NOV
Clase M90%90%90%
Clase X40%40%40%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 NOV 233
  Previsto   17 NOV-19 NOV  225/215/200
  Media de 90 Días        16 NOV 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  012/012-012/012-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 NOV a 19 NOV
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%45%45%
Tormenta Menor10%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%50%50%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

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