Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8765 (S13E19)
PRODUCED AN M2/2N FLARE AT 15/0841Z. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
ALSO OBSERVED THIS PERIOD. REGION 8765 REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON
THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 820 MILLIONTHS. THIS REGION HAS
STRONG MIXED POLARITIES WITH A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION. ANOTHER
REGION OF NOTE IS REGION 8766 (N17E44) WHICH DOES DISPLAY A DELTA
CONFIGURATION WITHIN THE GROUP. A 24 DEGREE FILAMENT AT N44E32
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 14/1845-2115Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY
AS REGION 8769 (S10E76).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS HAVE M-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL WITH THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 NOV a 18 NOV
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 NOV 206 Previsto 16 NOV-18 NOV 200/195/190 Media de 90 Días 15 NOV 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV 013/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV 010/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 NOV a 18 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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