Viendo archivo de jueves, 11 noviembre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 315 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 NOV 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, REGION 8753 (N18W36) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 10/2213Z. MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. DECAY OCCURRED IN THIS REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8759 (N10E20) GENERATED A C8/1N AT 11/1449Z. THIS REGION ALSO DECAYED IN WHITE LIGHT AREA DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N13W17) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUED TO EMERGE BUT AT A SLOW RATE. A MODERATE SIZE NEW REGION, 8765 (S10E73), ROTATED OVER THE LIMB BEHIND REGION 8763 (S14E60). REGION 8763 PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY MODERATE. REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 REMAIN AS THE LIKELY SOURCES OF M-CLASS FLARES DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND SLIGHTLY MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. HOWEVER, SEVERAL OTHER LESSER REGIONS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 11/0300-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED TO AROUND 650 KM/S AND DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING THE EARTH REMAINS IN THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM MENTIONED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. NO SOHO CORONAGRAPH DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE 08 NOV.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN DISTURBED ON 12 NOV. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. ON 13 NOV, THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AS THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 14 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 NOV a 14 NOV
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 NOV 240
  Previsto   12 NOV-14 NOV  242/245/245
  Media de 90 Días        11 NOV 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  023/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  018/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 NOV a 14 NOV
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%10%
Tormenta Menor25%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%30%15%
Tormenta Menor30%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%01%01%

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