Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGION
8759 (N10E33) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/0140Z. THIS REGION SHOWED
SLIGHT DECAY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE VERY LITTLE
MAGNETIC SHEAR IN THIS LARGE REGION. REGION 8753 (N19W23) BEGAN A
GROWTH PHASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF AT
10/1549Z. THE NUMBER OF SMALL SPOTS IN THIS REGION NEARLY DOUBLED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8760 (N13W03) GENERATED A C5/SF AT
10/0334Z. THE RATE OF GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE
PERIOD. REGION 8761 (N20E26) PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 10/1952Z. A
MODERATE SIZE CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED AT S13E75 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8763. THIS AREA PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL
C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8753, 8759, 8761
AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD
WAS FROM 09/2100-10/0000Z. DURING THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
SLOWLY DECREASED TO NEAR 520 KM/S. THIS DECREASE WAS NOT OBSERVED
FROM THIS CORONAL HOLE LAST SOLAR ROTATION. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 11-12 NOV.
ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THE EXTENSIVE AND FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM WOULD CEASE BEFORE 12 NOV. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED FOR 13 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCRONOUS
ORBIT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 NOV a 13 NOV
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 NOV 249 Previsto 11 NOV-13 NOV 255/260/262 Media de 90 Días 10 NOV 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV 024/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV 014/014 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV 018/018-018/018-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 NOV a 13 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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