Viendo archivo de martes, 9 noviembre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 313 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 NOV 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8759 (N10E46) PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M1/1F AT 09/2009Z. THIS REGION IS LARGE AND WAS GENERALLY STABLE BUT EXHIBITED SOME MIXED POLARITIES INCLUDING A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILER WHERE THE M1 FLARE WAS LOCATED. REGION 8760 (N14E10) CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A MODERATELY FAST PACE AND PRODUCED A C8/2B AT 09/0607Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT SUBFLARES, THIS REGION EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PERIOD. THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT A MODERATE SIZE REGION IS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BOTH REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF GENERATING M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8759 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/0900-1200Z. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS CORONAL HOLE RELATED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH NEAR 09/1035Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC FIELD DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AT MID LATITUDES, AND MAJOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 NOV a 12 NOV
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       09 NOV 230
  Previsto   10 NOV-12 NOV  215/220/225
  Media de 90 Días        09 NOV 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 NOV  019/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  025/029
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  020/027-018/025-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 NOV a 12 NOV
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%40%
Tormenta Menor30%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%40%
Tormenta Menor35%35%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%15%

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