Viendo archivo del domingo, 7 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 311 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8759
(N08E70) PRODUCED A SINGLE C-CLASS SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IT
IS A MODERATE-SIZED GROUP WITH A COMPACT SPOT DISTRIBUTION AND A
MODERATELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. REGION 8757 (N36W16) SHOWED
SLOW GROWTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES, BUT
STABILIZED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. REGION 8749 (S18W76) CONTINUED TO
SHOW A SLIGHT DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE AS IT
APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. MINOR GROWTH WAS NOTED WITHIN REGION 8753
(N20E16) AND (NEWLY NUMBERED) REGION 8760 (N13E35). BOTH REGIONS
APPEARED TO BE SIMPLY-STRUCTURED BIPOLES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8759 MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
ONSET OF CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. ACE REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA
INDICATED A TRANSITION TO A CORONAL HOLE WINDSTREAM BEGINNING
ROUGHLY 06/2300Z. FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO MINOR
STORM LEVELS SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH STORM LEVELS MOSTLY LIMITED TO
HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 NOV a 10 NOV
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 NOV 174 Previsto 08 NOV-10 NOV 180/185/190 Media de 90 Días 07 NOV 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 NOV 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 NOV 022/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 NOV-10 NOV 020/025-020/030-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 NOV a 10 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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