Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 noviembre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Nov 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 308 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 NOV 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8749
(S18W39) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE
LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C8/1F AT 03/2249Z. THIS REGION SHOWED NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD AND RETAINED A MIXED-POLARITY
STRUCTURE. REGION 8747 (N11W38) DISPLAYED MINOR MIXED POLARITIES,
BUT WAS STABLE. A BROAD BAND OF INTENSE CA XV EMISSION WAS VISIBLE
ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB. IT LIKELY HERALDS THE RETURN OF A BAND OF
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES (ROUGHLY L = 320 TO 280). NEW REGION
8754 (S09E66) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY LOW. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO
THE RETURN OF PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS LATE IN THE
PERIOD DUE TO RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 NOV a 07 NOV
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 NOV 148 Previsto 05 NOV-07 NOV 150/155/165 Media de 90 Días 04 NOV 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 005/007-010/007-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 NOV a 07 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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