Viendo archivo del jueves, 28 octubre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 301 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 OCT 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE DEPARTURE OF REGION 8737 NEAR SW13 AND THE SIMPLIFICATION OF REGION 8739 (S11W37) CAUSED FLARE COUNTS TO FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY OCCURRED, THE MOST NOTABLE EVENT BEING A C1/SF FROM 8739 AT 0457Z. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8747 (N10E59) HAS BRIGHT PLAGE AND DID PRODUCE A FEW SUBFLARES DURING THE INTERVAL.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. ALTHOUGH SEEMINGLY MORE BENIGN, REGION 8739 MAY STILL GENERATE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE DAY. ABOUT 1200Z, SOLAR WIND PLASMA AND MAGNETIC FIELD EXPERIENCED A CHANGE AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT, RESULTING IN THE DISTURBED LEVELS SEEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THESE DATA SUGGEST A GLANCING BLOW BY A TRANSIENT AS THE CAUSE OF THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS FROM 1330-1630Z, APPROXIMATELY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EPISODIC MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. A HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO PROLONG THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH OCTOBER 31.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 OCT a 31 OCT
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 OCT 184
  Previsto   29 OCT-31 OCT  175/165/160
  Media de 90 Días        28 OCT 157
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 OCT  010/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 OCT  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 OCT-31 OCT  020/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 OCT a 31 OCT
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%40%40%
Tormenta Menor30%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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