Viendo archivo del viernes, 22 octubre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

: : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : SDF Número 295 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 OCT 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C4/SF IN REGION 8732 (N20W89) AT 22/0915Z. TWO TYPE II'S OCCURRED AT 22/0853Z AND 22/1300Z, LIKELY DUE TO THE CME ACTIVITY IN THE CLUSTER OF REGIONS TRANSITING THE NORTHWEST LIMB. REGIONS 8737 (S15W26) AND 8739 (S13E43) BOTH EXHIBITED GROWTH THIS PERIOD WITH REGION 8739 PRODUCING A 1F/SF AT 22/1929Z. NEW REGIONS 8740 (N27W83) AND 8741 (S25E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8731 (N12W79) AND REGION 8732, AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGIONS 8737 AND 8739.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THIS STORM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OBSERVED AT 21/0226Z. A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM FOLLOWED THE SI, BUT CONDITIONS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY AROUND 21/2240Z. A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE IMF BZ TO A STRONG SOUTHWARD ORIENTATION PRODUCED SEVERE CONDITIONS AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE BEGAN TO WANE SOON AFTER 22/1200Z. ACTIVE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES. A FAVORABLY POSITIONED GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLE SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH ALL THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 OCT a 25 OCT
Clase M40%35%30%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón10%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 OCT 160
  Previsto   23 OCT-25 OCT  155/145/140
  Media de 90 Días        22 OCT 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 OCT  014/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT  055/090
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT  025/040-020/030-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 OCT a 25 OCT
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor40%40%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%40%40%
Tormenta Menor50%40%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%10%

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