Viendo archivo de jueves, 21 octubre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 OCT 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THESE WERE FROM REGIONS 8732 (N21W76) AND 8739 (S12E58). REGIONS 8739 AND 8737 (S15W12) BOTH SHOWED GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8731 (N12W68) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK BUT WAS RELATIVELY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8731 AND 8732 CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR ENERGETIC FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 0226Z, WHICH WAS PRECEDED BY A SHOCK OBSERVED AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 0138Z. THE SHOCK WAS FOLLOWED BY AN INTERPLANETARY TRANSIENT, BUT THE TRANSIENT WAS NOT VERY GEOEFFECTIVE: ONLY ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 0300-0600Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME ENHANCED ACTIVITY DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT ON THE SECOND DAY, BUT ANOTHER INCREASE IS ANTICIPATED ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 OCT a 24 OCT
Clase M40%35%30%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón10%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 OCT 159
  Previsto   22 OCT-24 OCT  150/145/140
  Media de 90 Días        21 OCT 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 OCT  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 OCT  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 OCT-24 OCT  015/020-015/010-020/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 OCT a 24 OCT
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%50%
Tormenta Menor20%20%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor25%25%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%20%

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