Viewing archive of martes, 19 octubre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 292 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 OCT 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C8/SF FROM REGION 8732 (N22W52) AT 19/1941Z. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. REGION 8731 (N13W45) HAS DECAYED SLIGHTLY , PRODUCING OCCASIONAL MINOR SUBFLARES. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BRIGHT SURGING WAS OBSERVED ON THE SE LIMB BETWEEN 19/0700 - 1000Z, A CME FROM THE SAME LOCATION OCCURRED DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEW REGION 8737 (S15E14) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED A SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THOUGH LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION 8731 HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECAY, IT MAINTAINS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. REGION 8732 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8737, IF IT MAINTAINS ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, WILL SOON BECOME A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OBSERVED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ELECTRON FLUX REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE AS A CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 OCT a 22 OCT
Clase M45%45%40%
Clase X10%10%05%
Protón10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 OCT 170
  Previsto   20 OCT-22 OCT  170/165/160
  Media de 90 Días        19 OCT 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 OCT  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 OCT  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 OCT-22 OCT  010/008-012/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 OCT a 22 OCT
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%

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