Viendo archivo de miércoles, 13 octubre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 286 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 OCT 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8731 (N11E38) AND 8732 (N20E30) PRODUCED MOST OF TODAY'S OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. BOTH GROUPS ARE SHOWING GROWTH AND INCREASING MAGNETIC STRENGTH. REGION 8728 (N22E12) CONTINUES TO BE LARGE BUT SEEMED TO BE SIMPLIFYING MAGNETICALLY AND WAS MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE DAY. A 27 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N45E15 ERUPTED BETWEEN 0000Z AND 0914Z ON THE 13TH. X-RAY AND CORONAGRAPH OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT THE DISAPPEARANCE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8728, 8731 OR 8732. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS EXPERIENCED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AND THE DAYTIME HOURS WERE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS BEING CAUSED BY THE PRESENCE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL WIND STREAM AS INDICATED BY SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDE, DUE TO CONTINUED EFFECTS FROM THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM. A DECREASE TO UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE IS EXPECTED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 OCT a 16 OCT
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 OCT 191
  Previsto   14 OCT-16 OCT  195/200/200
  Media de 90 Días        13 OCT 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 OCT  021/034
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 OCT  020/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 OCT-16 OCT  025/030-025/025-010/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 OCT a 16 OCT
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo45%45%10%
Tormenta Menor15%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%10%
Tormenta Menor20%20%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%01%

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