Viendo archivo de lunes, 11 octubre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 284 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 OCT 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY CONSISTED OF A FEW, LOW LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. OF THE 10 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, NEW REGION 8731 (N10E62) WAS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH FREQUENT POINT BRIGHTENINGS AND PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS. REGION 8728 (N22E38) IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AT 560 MILLIONTHS AND SHOWS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THIS GROUP HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GROWTH AND COMPLEXITY OF REGION 8728. REGION 8731 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVE LEVELS DOMINATED FROM 0000-1500Z. SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS INDICATED THAT THE ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO A HIGH-SPEED, LOW-DENSITY CORONAL HOLE ASSOCIATED SOLAR WIND STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS ATTAINED HIGH FLUX VALUES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. A NEW ENHANCEMENT IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD DAYS AS A NEW SOLAR CORONAL HOLE WILL BE ROTATING INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION. MID-LATITUDES ARE FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE AND HIGH LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 OCT a 14 OCT
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 OCT 167
  Previsto   12 OCT-14 OCT  170/175/180
  Media de 90 Días        11 OCT 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 OCT  018/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 OCT  020/022
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 OCT-14 OCT  015/020-020/030-020/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 OCT a 14 OCT
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%40%40%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%40%40%
Tormenta Menor15%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%15%15%

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