Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 octubre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 277 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 OCT 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C5/SF FROM REGION 8720 (N13E54) AT 04/0816Z. SMALL SUBFLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 8719 (S22E37) AND 8721 (S18E46). SEVERAL FILAMENTS AROUND N35 AND SPANNING CENTRAL MERIDIAN FADED SLOWLY BEGINNING AT 23/2324Z. A SMALL H CLASS SPOT ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8723 (N18E76).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A PREDOMINANTLY LOW LEVEL. ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX 8719/8721 AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE 8716 (N19E47)/8720 COMPLEX.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SEVERAL SITES DURING THE PERIOD. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD TO NEAR 450 KM/S.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO CORONAL HOLES, WHICH ENLARGED SINCE LAST ROTATION, ARE MOVING INTO FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THEIR HIGH SPEED STREAMS TO IMPACT THE EARTH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 OCT a 07 OCT
Clase M20%20%20%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       04 OCT 144
  Previsto   05 OCT-07 OCT  145/147/150
  Media de 90 Días        04 OCT 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 OCT  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT  012/020-012/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 OCT a 07 OCT
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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