Viendo archivo del sábado, 2 octubre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 OCT 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION EXCEPT WITH A C3/SF
OBSERVED AT 02/1828Z FROM REGION 8716 (N21E70). THE LARGEST EVENT
WAS A C6 AT 02/0156Z. SURGING WAS OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST LIMB AS TWO ACTIVE REGIONS ARE STARTING TO ROTATE ONTO THE
DISK. NEW REGION 8716 (N21E70) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
FROM ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE REGIONS NEAR THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ALTERNATED BETWEEN MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD
THEN BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 OCT a 05 OCT
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 OCT 126 Previsto 03 OCT-05 OCT 130/135/135 Media de 90 Días 02 OCT 155
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT 010/015-008/015-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 OCT a 05 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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