Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 septiembre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Sep 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 260 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 SEP 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8690 (N16W74) SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. IT PRODUCED AN M2/SF AT 17/0120Z. REGION 8700 (N13E20) SHOWED SOME MIXED POLARITIES AS IT GRADUALLY DECAYED AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S (16/1508 - 1615Z) 50-DEGREE DSF. NEW REGIONS 8702 (N22E15), 8703 (N21W92), AND 8704 (S21E63) WERE NUMBERED. REGION 8704 APPEARED TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8674, WHICH PRODUCED MAJOR FLARES DURING ITS PREVIOUS ROTATIONS. THUS FAR, IT HAS BEEN A STABLE H-TYPE GROUP.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGIONS 8690 AND 8700.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING DETECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS LATE ON 19 SEPTEMBER DUE TO YESTERDAY'S DSF/CME. STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 SEP a 20 SEP
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 SEP 158
  Previsto   18 SEP-20 SEP  160/165/170
  Media de 90 Días        17 SEP 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 SEP  018/032
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP  015/015-015/015-030/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 SEP a 20 SEP
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%50%50%
Tormenta Menor10%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%50%50%
Tormenta Menor15%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

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