Viendo archivo del miércoles, 8 septiembre 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Sep 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 251 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 SEP 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8690 (N13E47) PRODUCED AN M1/1B AT 1217Z. THE REGION PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES, BUT IS RATHER SMALL (50 MILLIONTHS) AND IS SHOWING ONLY SLOW GROWTH. REGION 8692 (S27E60) HAS ROTATED INTO VIEW AS AN E-TYPE REGION AND IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AT 230 MILLIONTHS. THE GROUP WAS QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. NEW REGION 8694 (S14W14) EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHWEST LIMB (S34W90) FROM 1126-1220Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8690 OR 8692.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. INITIALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE SEEN IN RESPONSE TO A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL HOLE. CONDITIONS TURNED MARKEDLY QUIET AFTER 0300Z IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHWARD TURNING OF THE BZ COMPONENT OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURNED AFTER 12Z AS BZ TURNED STEADILY SOUTH FOR JUST OVER AN HOUR. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS OF THE REPORTING PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, BUT THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL CORONAL HOLES THAT WILL BE ROTATING INTO FAVORABLE POSITIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 SEP a 11 SEP
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 SEP 106
  Previsto   09 SEP-11 SEP  105/105/100
  Media de 90 Días        08 SEP 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP  012/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP  012/012-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 SEP a 11 SEP
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%25%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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