Viendo archivo del domingo, 29 agosto 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 241 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 AUG 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C9/1N FROM REGION 8681 (N22W03) AT 29/1731Z. THIS
REGION CONTINUED TO EMERGE RAPIDLY AND EXHIBITED AN ABNORMAL
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF A NEGATIVE ISLAND SURROUNDED BY POSITIVE
POLARITY. REGION 8674 (S23W40) STABILIZED. THE LARGEST EVENT IT
PRODUCED WAS A C4/SF AT 29/1229Z. THIS REGION MAINTAINED THE
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IT HAS EXHIBITED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT IT SHOWED NO REGION DYNAMICS SUCH AS GROWTH AND SPOT PROPER
MOTION. THE X1 FLARE AT 28/1805Z PRODUCED A LARGE CORONAL MASS
EJECTION THAT MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
MODERATE. REGION 8674 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING M-CLASS
AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF
EVENTS SHOULD LESSEN AS THIS REGION BEGINS A SLOW PERIOD OF DECAY.
REGION 8681 SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND NOW POSSESSES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD TO JUST OVER 500 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE HIGH.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NONE OF MANY
RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH
HEAD-ON BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLANKS OF SOME OF THE CMES COULD
REACH THE EARTH. THEREFORE, ISOLATED ACTIVE, TO POSSIBLY MINOR
STORM, PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR 1-2 MORE DAYS. THE
POSSIBLY EXISTS FOR A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. REGION
8674 IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 AUG a 01 SEP
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 AUG 218 Previsto 30 AUG-01 SEP 220/217/197 Media de 90 Días 29 AUG 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP 010/012-012/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 AUG a 01 SEP
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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