Viendo archivo del martes, 10 agosto 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Aug 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 222 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 AUG 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8656 (N14W86), 8657
(S31W35), AND 8662 (S16E07) ALL PRODUCED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS.
REGION 8656 PRODUCED A C4/SF AT 10/0607Z AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL MINOR SUBFLARES. REGION 8662, THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE
REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, PRODUCED A C4/1F AT 10/1624Z. MINOR
GROWTH AND FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION AND
MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WAS EVIDENT IN A BETA-GAMMA
CONFIGURATION. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8662 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FROM REGION 8657.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WAS DETECTED AT L1 AROUND 10/1800Z. BZ TURNED SHARPLY
SOUTHWARD CAUSING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 AUG a 13 AUG
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 AUG 127 Previsto 11 AUG-13 AUG 130/130/135 Media de 90 Días 10 AUG 164
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG 010/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG 008/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 AUG a 13 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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