Viendo archivo del sábado, 24 julio 1999

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 205 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 JUL 1999

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF FIVE M-CLASS EVENTS. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M2 EVENTS OCCURRED AT 24/1112Z AND 24/1133Z. NEW REGION 8645 (S26E69) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 23/2300Z, AN M1/1N AT 24/0404Z, AND A LONG DURATION M3/SF AT 24/0756Z. WHILE STILL NOT FULLY VISIBLE, THIS REGION SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS SUNSPOT GROUP. IT IS VERY NEAR THE LOCATION OF OLD REGION 8611 THAT WAS ACTIVE LAST ROTATION. REGION 8636 (N21W13) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. OVERALL, THIS REGION WAS STABLE AND EXHIBITED MINOR MIXING OF POLARITIES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A MODERATE LEVEL. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION 8645 PRIMARILY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE HISTORY OF THIS AREA. REGION 8636 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR FLARES FROM THIS REGION AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM REGION 8645.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL AND OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDED 500 KM/S.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH THE RECENT ACTIVITY ON THE DISK AND EAST LIMB. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT SHOULD REGION 8636 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 JUL a 27 JUL
Clase M90%90%90%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón15%15%15%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 JUL 184
  Previsto   25 JUL-27 JUL  186/189/190
  Media de 90 Días        24 JUL 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 JUL a 27 JUL
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%10%05%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%10%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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