Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 julio 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Jul 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 197 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 JUL 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8635 (N44W79)
PRODUCED A C7/SF FLARE AT 16/0849UT AND AN M3/0N FLARE AT 16/1550UT.
THE LATTER EVENT ALSO PRODUCED MINOR RADIO ACTIVITY, INCLUDING A
TYPE II SWEEP. REGION 8627 (S14W34) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 16/1731UT.
EIT IMAGERY FROM THE SOHO SPACE CRAFT SHOWED A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
REGION JUST STATING TO ROTATE ONTO THE NORTHEAST LIMB. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY BE RETURNING REGION 8598. THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL C AND
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE LAST ROTATION. THE REST OF THE DISK AND
LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS
8627 AND 8635.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHEN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 JUL a 19 JUL
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 JUL 132 Previsto 17 JUL-19 JUL 140/145/150 Media de 90 Días 16 JUL 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUL 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL 005/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL 005/007-005/007-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 JUL a 19 JUL
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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